Magical Population

I talk about this some in relation to Hogwarts, but the size of the school is really only a symptom, not the full problem in all of its details. The size of the population effects everything from the ability of the resulting culture to support sports teams, to more mundane stores like clothing stores and book stores, to what constitutes a reasonable government. The small population suggested by the small school size we see with a few hundred students attending across all seven years is barely a small town. This would not justify a full parliament, a multi-tiered court system, or anything more complex than a town council of perhaps a dozen people. There would certainly be no lords and ladies of noble houses, they would comprise a ridiculously high percentage of the population.¹

Commentator Red Hen spent some time looking at the numbers in a fair amount of detail, and with a closer attention to maths than I tend to be capable of. Despite some impressive analysis, some of her numbers are a bit suspect. For example, as best I can tell, Fleamont Potter would have been at least 87 when he died, not 57. The bigger issue however is that she is failing to consider the full implications of the partial family trees that I have tried to piece together here.

A few examples:

• Arthur’s father is Septimus Weasley. One does not name one’s child ‘Septimus’ without a reason. There must be a significant seven associated with him. Most likely Septimus is a seventh child or seventh son. Possibly, but less likely, he’s named in honour of a seventh generation of something, maybe of firstborn males? It is possible but even more unlikely that he’s named in honour of an ancestor who was the seventh son, despite himself not being associated with a seven. I consider this last the least likely, but Red Hen’s numbers depend on it.
• Arthur has two brothers, and Weasleys, we are told in book one, are known for having large families. While Draco is an unreliable source, prejudice does general have some kernel of truth associated with it. It is unlikely that Arthur is the only large Weasley family. However, if his is not, then where are all the Weasley cousins? They get mentioned as existing at Bill’s wedding, but we do not see them even there. At least some of the cousins should either be at Hogwarts, or should themselves have children who are, at least by book six.
• Neville also has a fairly extensive family full of holes and implied aunts, uncles, great aunts, and great uncles. How is it that Neville exists in this odd generational gap where he’s the only Longbottom at Hogwarts?
• Susan Bones is in fact quite the exception in that a very careful reading accounts for all of her aunts and uncles, and explains the lack of cousins. The only possible hole there is that she might have siblings.
• In short, despite the clear cultural importance of preserving family lines, there seems to be a remarkable acceptance of single female heirs, a frankly improbable collection of heirs in a single year, and no explanation for this.
• On top of this, there are statements that there should be a fair greater percentage of half-bloods (and by inference first generation students) than we actually see in the school’s distribution.²

All of this adds up to a picture where Red Hen’s projections from the 40 student class list start to fall down. We are getting pushed back towards the versions of the numbers, some of which are in that essay, where there simply have to be missing dorms, missing teachers, in short, where [Harry] is simply oblivious to the bulk of the student body who don’t directly impact his daily experience (except as being part of “the masses”).

On the other hand, it is possible that what we see here is the result of a series of rather radical population drops. WolfgangNH explains how this might as part of the backstory for his work exploring magical marriage laws, The Ancient Proliferation Covenant.

“Head Parkinson, how many witches and wizards are there? I don’t ever remember those numbers being discussed,” Lady Exeter said.

“Far fewer than a hundred years ago,” she replied.

“How many fewer? In all this we knew the numbers were lower, but by how much?”

Roberta looked to her. Amelia knew the figures and had just about thrown up to understand how close their world was to collapse. After a nod, Roberta cleared her throat. “The official number is thirteen-thousand, two hundred and fifteen.”

There were gasps around the room. “And unofficially?” Augusta pressed.

“Seventeen-thousand and forty-four if you count the Muggleborn that have gone back to the muggle world over the last fifty years. More than half of our population has either been home schooled or gone over seas in the last thirty years. About half of them don’t return,” Roberta admitted.

“And this is the price we were willing to accept going forward? How many where there a hundred years ago?” Lord Chang questioned.

“The best our records can show is about forty-eight thousand in nineteen-hundred. That dropped to thirty-seven after Grindelwald. Voldemort was much more destructive in his rise to power than we originally thought,” Unspeakable number three said.

“How much more destructive?” Augusta asked.

“In nineteen-eighty-one there were twenty-one thousand four-hundred and three. His Death Eaters eliminated many Muggleborn and lesser-known half-blood houses, or the changes to our laws in the seventies chased many away. More than three thousand fled the country, and those families that only had older members have either died of natural causes or left as well, bringing us to our current situation,” Unspeakable number three replied.

Lord Chang put his hand on his mouth. “Why was this never told to us? How did so many die? I would have thought if the numbers were that bad that the population would have revolted.”

Amelia sighed. “Bagnold and Fudge were afraid that the Ministry would fall if it was known.³

Here, the story is taking place after many who supported Riddle fall dead the moment he does. Cannon does not support the Dark Mark working that way, despite it being a popular idea. Still, the idea might be close enough. We know that Riddle and his supporters went on quite the killing spree as part of his first rise to power. I have not read the three movie scripts to know what has been written of Grindelwald’s rise to power and how many in Britain might have died as a result, and even so, [I am not sure how canonical they should be considered/Harrypedia/). The numbers from this fan fiction might thus be sufficiently suggestive, we only know of a few dozen marked Death Eaters anyway.

If they are, even before the deaths in book seven, we are already dealing with a badly shattered fragment of a society. It becomes much easier to understand how that few dozen of terrorists can pacify a population, and compel obedience. Everyone surviving is related to entire families that no longer exist due to the atrocities committed by pure-blood fanatics, and in many cases by these fanatics. This is true not simply because they are unbelievably inbred, but because the that many died. No wonder this shell shocked remainder cannot handle the idea of Riddle’s return.

Of course, I cannot be sure that this is what happened. It makes it hard to give them full benefit of the doubt as I analyse what goes on across the books.